HUANG YAN. Study on Power Demand Load Transfer Based on Model Predictive Control. [J]. Power capacitor & reactive power compensation, 2018, 39(3): 128-133.
HUANG YAN. Study on Power Demand Load Transfer Based on Model Predictive Control. [J]. Power capacitor & reactive power compensation, 2018, 39(3): 128-133. DOI: 10.14044/j.1674-1757.pcrpc.2018.03.024.
Study on Power Demand Load Transfer Based on Model Predictive Control
摘要
针对目前电能系统长期存在负荷压力过大、电能需求波动性大、不稳定等特点
提出切实的需求预测方法
建立需求预测模型。利用该模型对近年来全社会用电量需求进行模拟
证明了预测模型的可行性
进一步对未来电能需求量进行预测
在大范围内把握未来总体电能需求水平。并且以未来电能需求为例
应用电能需求转移模型对预测结果中出现的需求负荷不均匀问题进行有效的调节
削弱需求集中带来的影响
减小需求波动幅度
使需求在原基础上分布更加均衡合理
同时在电能需求负荷总体规模不断增长的态势下维持系统的稳定
从而验证了需求转移模型的有效性。
Abstract
In view of such characteristics of power system as the excessive load
large fluctuation and instability of power demand
the practical demand prediction method is proposed and the demand predictive model is set up.The power demand by the society in recent years is simulated by the model
the feasibility of the model is proved
the power demand in the future is predicted and the general power demand level is seized within the large range.The power demand in the future is taken as an example
the transfer model of the power demand is used to perform effective regulation of the uneven demand load of the predictive result
weaken the influence due to demand concentration
reduce the demand fluctuation amplitude and keep the distribution of the demand on the original base more balanced and reasonable and
at the same time
maintain system stability under the condition of rapid increase of general scope of power demand load
thus the effectiveness of the demand transfer model is verified.
关键词
电能需求模型预测控制季节指数负荷转移
Keywords
power demandmodel predictive controlseason indexload transfer