With consideration of power generation and power consumption feature of distribution network in the future

a comprehensive analysis method for reliability of uncertain distribution network considering grid topology

equipment factor

power output and load requirement is proposed. The fault rate and repair rate of grid of system side for each load point of the distribution network is calculated on the basis of network equivalent method. In view of islanded operation mode of distribution network

the state transition rate parameter reflecting the redundancy uncertainty of power output and load requirement

mechanical fault parameter of distributed generation and the starting and switching parameter of islanded system are calculated. Finally

the method proposed in this paper is verified by the IEEE-RBTS BUS6 calculation example of distribution through the Markov model. Both accuracy and effectiveness of the method are verified by the evaluation result.